The best supply chain news ASEAN frontier markets have had all year landed on Friday night — a US-Iran peace deal that could unwind the Strait of Hormuz risk premium. But the peace deal only fixes the cost of moving goods — not the cost of operating inside the region. Governance risk is now repricing upward on its own axis, and the two vectors don’t cancel. For anyone sourcing from, lending to, or investing in ASEAN’s frontier markets, the era of single-variable risk models is over.
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Transcript (Experimental) #
Emily Chen: Week 2 of June delivered on our mid-year theme — growth divergence and capital rotation — with some of the sharpest arguments we’ve published all month. That brings us to Saturday’s SEA Weekly — and Miguel Santos’s most counterintuitive argument in months. The US-Iran peace deal could unwind the Strait of Hormuz risk premium. Great news. But Miguel says the peace deal only fixes the cost of moving goods — not the cost of operating inside the region. Governance risk is now repricing upward on its own axis, and the two vectors don’t cancel.
Miguel Santos: Thanks for having me, Emily. The best supply chain news ASEAN frontier markets have had all year landed on Friday night — and it came wrapped in a paradox.
Emily Chen: Miguel Santos, SEA Weekly’s industrial and supply chain correspondent, on why the US-Iran peace deal is genuinely good news — but not nearly as simple as the headlines suggest. If you take one thing away from this week’s episode: ASEAN supply chain risk is no longer a single number. Energy costs may be heading down, but governance risk is now rising on its own axis — and the two don’t cancel out.
Emily Chen: Links to every article we discussed are in the show notes. SEA Weekly publishes every Saturday. The podcast drops Sunday.